Assessing Each Relegation-Threatened Premier League Club’s Run-In

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​Liverpool may very well be running away with the Premier League title, but at the other end of the table it is far from clear who will be relegated from the top division this season.

After 24 league games, there was just seven points separating tenth-placed Arsenal and 18th-placed Bournemouth. And while the gap has opened up, there are still only four points separating 19th-placed Watford and 15th-placed Brighton & Hove Albion after 27 games. 

Ezequiel Schelotto,Gerard Deulofeu

Southampton were at risk of being cut adrift early in the campaign after a number of poor displays (including that 9-0 thumping), but having managed to go on and string a few wins together, they now find themselves sat in 12th place. 

With a number of teams still fighting to avoid the drop, we have decided to assess each relegation candidate’s run-in by rating the difficulty of their remaining games, before looking at how many points each time will finish with. Enjoy…


Newcastle

Steve Bruce

M28: Newcastle vs Burnley – Difficulty: 4/10

M29: Southampton vs Newcastle – Difficulty: 6/10

M30: Newcastle vs Sheffield United – Difficulty: 6/10

M31: Newcastle vs Aston Villa – Difficulty: 4/10

M32: Bournemouth vs Newcastle – Difficulty: 4/10

M33: Newcastle vs West Ham – Difficulty: 4/10

M34: Manchester City vs Newcastle – Difficulty: 8/10

M35: Watford vs Newcastle – Difficulty: 6/10

M36: Newcastle vs Tottenham – Difficulty: 7/10

M37: Brighton vs Newcastle – Difficulty: 5/10

M38: Newcastle vs Liverpool – Difficulty: 9/10

​Newcastle were one of the favourites to go down this season, but they have continued to stay clear of the relegation zone. However, they are certainly not safe yet, and they have failed to pick up a win in any of their last four league games.

Despite this, they only require three more wins in order to reach the coveted 40-point mark – and they will do this when considering their run-in. The Magpies will stay up, but it would be nice if their star striker could actually score goals. 

Predicted Points Total: 42


West Ham

FBL-ENG-PR-LIVERPOOL-WEST HAM

M28: West Ham vs Southampton – Difficulty: 4/10

M29: Arsenal vs West Ham – Difficulty: 8/10

M30: West Ham vs Wolves – Difficulty: 7/10 

M31: Tottenham vs West Ham – Difficulty: 8/10

M32: West Ham vs Chelsea – Difficulty: 8/10

M33: Newcastle vs West Ham – Difficulty: 6/10

M34: West Ham vs Burnley – Difficulty: 4/10

M35: Norwich vs West Ham – Difficulty: 5/10

M36: West Ham vs Watford – Difficulty: 5/10

M37: Manchester United vs West Ham – Difficulty: 8/10

M38: West Ham vs Aston Villa – Difficulty: 3/10

Surely not. ​West Ham are too good to go down, aren’t they? 

Well, it’s been a miserable season for the Hammers and while David Moyes picked up a win on his return to the club as manager in December, they have since failed to win any of their last seven league games under him. That’s not the kind of form that will keep a team in the Premier League.

Still, they have a squad filled with talent and they certainly have more than enough quality to go on a run between now and the end of the season to move away from the drop zone. While they have a number of tough clashes before the campaign is over, Moyes will be looking for his side to pick up some valuable points in their matches against Southampton, Newcastle, Burnley, Norwich, Watford and Aston Villa. 

Predicted Points Total: 38 


Brighton

Matias Ezequiel Schelotto,Graham Potter

M28: Brighton vs Crystal Palace – Difficulty: 4/10

M29: Wolves vs Brighton – Difficulty: 6/10

M30: Brighton vs Arsenal – Difficulty: 7/10

M31: Leicester vs Brighton – Difficulty: 7/10

M32: Brighton vs Manchester United – Difficulty: 7/10

M33: Norwich vs Brighton – Difficulty: 4/10

M34: Brighton vs Liverpool – Difficulty: 9/10

M35: Brighton vs Manchester City – Difficulty: 8/10

M36: Southampton vs Brighton – Difficulty: 5/10

M37: Brighton vs Newcastle – Difficulty: 5/10

M38: Burnley vs Brighton – Difficulty: 5/10

​Brighton currently sit 15th in the league, four points clear of the relegation zone. However, they have actually won fewer games than both Aston Villa and Bournemouth, who currently sit below them in the standings. 

Graham Potter will be hoping his side can turn some of their many, many draws this season into wins – and they will have the opportunity to do that in their remaining games. Next up, the Seagulls take on Crystal Palace, and a win in this fixture would give them confidence heading into the final ten league games. 

They are a decent team and while they still have room for major improvement, they have proven that they have the quality to survive the drop. 

Predicted Points Total: 36


Watford

FBL-ENG-PR-BRIGHTON-WATFORD

M28: Watford vs Liverpool – Difficulty: 9/10

M29: Crystal Palace vs Watford – Difficulty: 6/10

M30: Watford vs Leicester – Difficulty: 7/10

M31: Burnley vs Watford – Difficulty: 5/10

M32: Watford vs Southampton – Difficulty: 5/10

M33: Chelsea vs Watford – Difficulty: 8/10

M34: Watford vs Norwich – Difficulty: 4/10

M35: Watford vs Newcastle – Difficulty: 4/10

M36: West Ham vs Watford – Difficulty: 5/10

M37: Watford vs Manchester City – Difficulty: 8/10

M38: Arsenal vs Watford – Difficulty: 8/10

​Watford‘s revival under Nigel Pearson has halted somewhat in recent weeks, having failed to win any of their last five league games.

While they do still need to face the likes of Liverpool, Chelsea, Man City and Arsenal, they also have a number of fixtures which Pearson will be keen to pick up all three points in. Although they lost last time out, they showed against ​Man Utd that they pose a real threat going forward.

Currently only one point behind Aston Villa, they are most certainly still in with a chance of survival, but the Hornets must look to pick up maximum points against the likes of Burnley, Norwich, Newcastle and West Ham.

Predicted Points Total: 36


Bournemouth

Eddie Howe

M28: Bournemouth vs Chelsea – Difficulty: 7/10

M29: Liverpool vs Bournemouth – Difficulty: 9/10

M30: Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace – Difficulty: 5/10

M31: Wolves vs Bournemouth – Difficulty: 7/10

M32: Bournemouth vs Newcastle – Difficulty: 6/10

M33: Manchester United vs Bournemouth – Difficulty: 8/10

M34: Bournemouth vs Tottenham – Difficulty: 7/10

M35: Bournemouth vs Leicester – Difficulty: 7/10

M36: Manchester City vs Bournemouth – Difficulty: 8/10

M37: Bournemouth vs Southampton – Difficulty: 6/10

M38: Everton vs Bournemouth – Difficulty: 6/10

​Bournemouth were perhaps not expecting to be in the position they currently are at the start of the season, but they have underperformed throughout the campaign.

A resounding 3-0 defeat away to Burnley last time out will have dented their hopes of survival even further, and they certainly don’t have an easy run-in. The Cherries next face Chelsea and ​Liverpool, but Eddie Howe will be desperate to see his side pick up points in the games against Crystal Palace, Wolves and Newcastle.

As well as facing Chelsea and Liverpool, they also take on Man Utd, Tottenham, Leicester, Man City, Southampton and Everton before the end of the campaign. 

It doesn’t look good.

Predicted Points Total: 34


Aston Villa

Dean Smith

M28: Aston Villa vs Sheffield United (to be rescheduled) – Difficulty: 6/10

M29: Leicester vs Aston Villa – Difficulty: 7/10

M30: Aston Villa vs Chelsea – Difficulty: 7/10

M31: Newcastle vs Aston Villa – Difficulty: 6/10

M32: Aston Villa vs Wolves – Difficulty: 7/10

M33: Liverpool vs Aston Villa – Difficulty: 9/10

M34: Aston Villa vs Manchester United – Difficulty: 7/10

M35: Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace – Difficulty: 5/10

M36: Everton vs Aston Villa – Difficulty: 6/10

M37: Aston Villa vs Arsenal – Difficulty: 7/10

M38: West Ham vs Aston Villa – Difficulty: 6/10

Despite Jack Grealish’s best efforts, ​Aston Villa are still hovering just above the relegation zone. Last time out, they fell to a dismal 2-0 defeat away to Southampton – a defeat thar manager Dean Smith described as ’embarrassing’.

Villa still have Leicester, Chelsea, Wolves, Liverpool, Man Utd, Everton and Arsenal to play, but they are the only side in the division to have not beaten a so-called ‘Big Six’ side in the ​Premier League this season. It’s a tough run of fixtures and, unfortunately for them, it could see them straight back down to the Championship.

Predicted Points Total: 32


Norwich

Daniel Farke

M28: Norwich vs Leicester – Difficulty: 7/10

M29: Sheffield United vs Norwich – Difficulty: 7/10

M30: Norwich vs Southampton – Difficulty: 5/10

M31: Norwich vs Everton – Difficulty: 6/10

M32: Arsenal vs Norwich – Difficulty: 8/10

M33: Norwich vs Brighton – Difficulty: 6/10

M34: Watford vs Norwich – Difficulty: 6/10

M35: Norwich vs West Ham – Difficulty: 5/10

M36: Chelsea vs Norwich – Difficulty: 8/10

M37: Norwich vs Burnley – Difficulty: 5/10

M38: Manchester City vs Norwich – Difficulty: 9/10

​Norwich have come up and attempted to play their own brand attacking, free-flowing football – and they should be given credit for that. However, they have already conceded 51 goals this season and that’s, well, just not going to save them from the drop.

The Canaries are seven points adrift of safety and while they will continue to fight to avoid relegation, they will be playing their football in the Championship next season.

Predicted Points Total: 24 


For more from Adam Aladay, follow him on Twitter!



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